Liam's 2023 off-road tech predictions - was he right?

Was Liam's bike-tech crystal ball on the money?

Liam Mercer

Dec 13 2023

Even though the industry is in a vastly different state from what it was at the start of the year, 2023 has been monumental for tech releases with new bikes, fresh drivetrains and so much more coming to the market. Last year, I laid down my tech predictions, hazarding a good guess of what I thought would come true. Lo and behold, I was right – well, for most of them. But before diving in, it's worth giving my 2023 cycling tech predictions a quick browse so you can familiarise yourself with my big calls.

More integration from Scott - wrong

Okay, so I was wrong with this one and, admittedly, I was riding the hype of the Spark and Genius bikes that were launched within a year of each other. For those who don’t already know, these bikes ushered in a new way of mounting their rear shocks (inspired by Bold) by placing them inside the frame. And as there were two Scott bikes now on the market with that very layout I was convinced that we’d the Ransom graced with the same tech.

But alas, that’s not yet happened and that’s okay because that prophecy is merely delayed, I believe. I don’t think that Scott would put so much effort into creating an all-new silhouette and suspension kinematic without eventually rolling it out onto the rest of its bike range.

The geometry race will slow down - Right

This one was a given. Brands have finally found the limits of geometry where performance is lost if pushed too far. Now, we’re seeing more bikes settle around a common figure range choosing a great ride, over jaw-dropping measurements.

That doesn’t mean that there haven’t been any ridiculous geometries spotted around the trade shows, however. The Alutech Armageddon looks mental, featuring a stunning 57-degree head angle with a 500mm reach and a 1369mm wheelbase, but this brand has been doing crazy things for a few years now. Is this too far? I think so, will brands still push the boundaries? Almost definitely.

Where the geometry race is calming down on trail through to downhill bikes, there's still some room to experiment with cross-country, where we're already seeing bikes getting longer and slacker. and with XC courses getting more technical, we'll still see some geometry innovation happening in this space.

More interesting suspension developments - Wrong

Whiffs of Specialized’s acquisition of the Trust fork patent got me excited and while there have been a couple of new suspension things going on, I don’t believe that any of them count as quite the win as a fresh(ish) linkage fork would have been.

There have been a bunch of tweaks and interesting things happening in the suspension space, however, including the World Cup Shock on the new Specialized Epic and Trek has made alterations to its IsoStrut design found on the Supercalibre. That said, we're seeing flex stays being employed on a range of bikes from Merida's One-Twenty, One-Forty, and One-Sixty platforms, as well as a whole host of cross-country bikes including the Berria Bravo.

SRAM’s direct-mount derailleur comes to market - Right

Does Transmission ring a bell? SRAM has properly shaken up the drivetrain game with its XX SL, XX, XO, and GX T-Type drivetrains all of which bin the mech hanger in favour of fully utilising the UDH mount, and attaching directly to the frame.

I've been following the story of this since uncovering a patent for a direct mount derailleur in 2022 right through to it being spotted on Nino Schurter's bike and even on Craigslist. But I didn't expect SRAM to release it in quite the way it did, with four models in the space of two months.

At its launch, we were treated to videos and ads of everyone and their mums standing on their mechs proving how strong they are. But it’s not only strength that T-Type promises. As well as that, they deliver smoother shifting under loads of power, which we’ve tested to great effect. But better still, this tech would make an awful lot of sense on e-mountain bikes, and that it does, but now, you probably know the drill so I won’t blather on. This of course led to the release of SRAM Eagle Powertrain.

More lightweight e-bikes - Right

Lightweight e-bikes are here to stay. Throughout 2023 we saw the release of the new Lapierre e-Zesty and Whyte’s brand new E-Lyte range. Although, what’s more exciting is that Bosch unveiled its lightweight motor which will no doubt pave the way for even more featherweight e-MTBs.

We’re set to see even more lightweight e-mountain bikes throughout 2024. What exactly? I can’t say but with brands bolstering their pedal assist ranges to offer more bikes to more people. Lightweight e-bikes look to blend the playfulness and agility of a man-powered machine with the helping hand of an electric motor which will appeal to a greater audience.

More cross-country mountain bikes from historically road-focussed brands - Right

Not as many road-based brands launched cross-country bikes as I first imagined. Last year saw Cervelo and Factor step into the realm of knobbly tires to cater to their cross-training athletes. Although Cervelo did add a full suspension bike to the fray. However, there was one brand that brought two XC mountain bikes to the market and with incredible success – Pinarello.

In May and August, the brand unleashed its Dogma XC full suspension bike and the Dogma XC HT hardtail, respectively. A road bike releasing a cross-country bike is one thing, but shoving it under the likes of Tom Pidcock and Pauline Ferrand-Prevot to win a handful of races, including gold in their respective categories at the UCI Mountain Bike World Championships is something else altogether. Producing two of the most winningest cross-country bikes well ahead of their rumoured release date proved to be an amazing advertising opportunity for Pinarello.

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Liam Mercer

Tech Editor here at off.road.cc Liam can also be found photographing bikes as well as revelling in cycling's intricacies. Whether it's gravel, mountain, or e-MTB as long as it's a bike on dirt, he's happy.